Luck

As of March 31st, the number of people who tested positive for the novel coronavirus in Hawai’i was 224 with one death. The deceased, however, was a senior citizen with other co-morbidities. Previously, an analysis of the data raised extreme skepticism. New York State announced its first case of infection on March 1st, five days before the first case in Hawaii. On March 30th, New York had over 38,000 cases of infection and over 900 deaths, following an exponential trajectory. Over essentially the same period of time, Hawai’i had 204 cases, following a linear regression. The low number was surely suspect, even considering the difference in population.

At this point, there may be reason to believe the reported number of confirmed cases in Hawai’i. On March 31st, one death was attributed to SARS-CoV-2 (over other co-morbidities). Again, that ranks Hawai’i very low in coronavirus-related fatalities (0.45% as compared to overall fatalities at 1.34%). There is no way to hide deaths. If there were many more deaths, then the original thesis (number of infections was too low) would be valid.

Could the situation change? With the “lockdown” and the shutdown of the tourist sector now in the second week, the likelihood of a surge decreases (i.e., based on the 14-day average incubation period of the novel coronavirus). Some kind of luck, eh?

Addendum: Confirmed cases of infection should peak between April 2nd and April 9th, not including recent visitors and returning residents in 14-day self-quarantine.

Note: All analyses in Notes are independent of other sources.