Luck

As of March 31st, the number of people who tested positive for the novel coronavirus in Hawai’i was 224 with one death. The deceased, however, was a senior citizen with other co-morbidities. Previously, an analysis of the data raised extreme skepticism. New York State announced its first case of infection on March 1st, five days before the first case in Hawaii. On March 30th, New York had over 38,000 cases of infection and over 900 deaths, following an exponential trajectory. Over essentially the same period of time, Hawai’i had 204 cases, following a linear regression. The low number was surely suspect, even considering the difference in population.

At this point, there may be reason to believe the reported number of confirmed cases in Hawai’i. On March 31st, one death was attributed to SARS-CoV-2 (over other co-morbidities). Again, that ranks Hawai’i very low in coronavirus-related fatalities (0.45% as compared to overall fatalities at 1.34%). There is no way to hide deaths. If there were many more deaths, then the original thesis (number of infections was too low) would be valid.

Could the situation change? With the “lockdown” and the shutdown of the tourist sector now in the second week, the likelihood of a surge decreases (i.e., based on the 14-day average incubation period of the novel coronavirus). Some kind of luck, eh?

Addendum: Confirmed cases of infection should peak between April 2nd and April 9th, not including recent visitors and returning residents in 14-day self-quarantine.

Note: All analyses in Notes are independent of other sources.

Auwe!

So far, the daily increase in the number of people testing positive for the novel coronavirus in Hawai’i remains linear (about 20 or so new cases per day). Daily totals:

• March 27 - 120
• March 28 - 151
• March 29 - 175
• March 30 - 204

The increase in new cases appears to be proportional to the number of outstanding administered tests. The total number of cases is suspiciously low given the elapsed time since the diagnosis of “Patient One” on March 6th.

There are probably numerous clusters of people who are silently self-treating for the disease with over-the-counter flu medication, all the while infecting family members and others. The discovery of these hotspots will only come about when the infected ones become ill enough to check into a hospital emergency room. The longer they wait, the likelihood of a super-surge of new cases becomes imminent. Worst yet, how many infected people are out in public and are asymptomatic?

The police have been issuing citations to people who are in violation of the “lockdown” mandate. Two people were arrested as well. From all indications, the incidents involved homeless perpetrators. Obviously, the police should be aware that the homeless cannot “stay at home.” Nonetheless, many precautions have been taken to remain incognito during the various daily outings. The bus is used extensively to travel between locations. Walking (the only exercise now available) is accomplished inside the International Marketplace (with the free wireless hotspot as a perk).

The “lockdown” has caused nearly all of the hotels in Waikiki to temporarily shut down. Restaurants and fast food joints are also shutting down, too, which now is leading to a perilous situation for people who do not cook at home. Personally, there are now few dining options remaining. Once again, the survival plans must be modified.

The Institute of Hair Design has shut down. So, all hair salons and barber shops are most likely closed, too. Where are people going get their haircuts? What will they look like when the “lockdown” is rescinded? Looks like a cheap pair of hair clippers will need to be procured. Sheesh!

A chance encounter with the formerly-homeless buddy in town on Saturday morning allowed for an interchange of personal news. The formerly-homeless buddy mentioned that he spent $800 on food, obviously hoarding. He still offered to share his place at the “old folks home” in Waialua for free, if needed.

Spotify® has become somewhat essential in tolerating the increasing hours spent in the tomb at the “old folks home” in Waikiki due to the “lockdown.” There has been absolutely NO temptation to purchase a big-ass OLED widescreen tube, binge on junk food, or drop back huge quantities of alcoholic beverages. Well, not yet, anyway.

Aloha!

The various “lockdown” mandates concurrently in effect throughout the State of Hawai’i is puzzling given the extremely low number of confirmed novel coronavirus infections. Initially, there was a lot of procrastination. No testing was done. Tourists were free to come and go. Locals visited hotspot destinations and returned. Even when the first cases of people testing positive upon returning home after visiting Hawai’i turned up, the response was “laid back.”

Then, just in the past three days, the islands have gone into a semi-Draconian “lockdown.” Today, the director of the Department of Public issued a statement that the novel coronavirus will pose a major threat to Hawai’i for at least the next four of five months with the peak yet to come.

From all indications, there seems to be a secretive internal consensus that something is drastically wrong with the ridiculously low number of confirmed cases of infections. In other words, they know the number is just too low in comparison to States that have significantly less domestic and international human exposure. Anyway, the total number of cases of coronavirus infections is at 106 with about 5,000 tests performed.

Moana Hotel

A quick look at the Moana Hotel, the other legacy hotel in Waikiki. The hotel is currently closed, so view of the lobby and outside courtyard was not possible. Nearly all of Waikiki is closed down. However, the tourists don’t seem to mind. Speaking of tourists, the 14-day self-quarantine for visitors is effective today. Aloha from Waikiki!

Stir Crazy

The “lockdown” seems to have only one goal ... mass mental insanity. There is no way to reconcile any extended period of seclusion in the tomb at the “old folks home” in Waikiki. Thus, the somewhat ridiculous itinerary (as detailed yesterday) was followed. After breakfast at the bus stop beach at Ala Moana Center, there was the discovery that the entire second floor of the mall had been closed off. Not to worry, though. The patronized venues are still open.

To understand the farcical basis of the “lockdown,” a careful scrutiny of the exceptions is revealing. For example, construction is exempt, as the latter is considered “essential.” So, all construction sites are unaffected by work stoppage. In fact, all union-related jobs are unaffected.

The daily visit to Target® led to the pleasant discovery that some canned goods were available. So, several cans of Van Camp’s® pork and beans were procured. Restoring canned beans to the monastic diet serves two purposes. First, it reduces useless calories while maintaining necessary protein and fiber. Second, it reduces the cost of daily dinners by $2 or more.

Royal Hawai’ian Hotel

Incidentally, the best time to walk around Waikiki is during “lockdown.” With very few tourists, the grotesque and cheap theme park appearance of Waikiki is just hideous. A quick look at the old Royal Hawai’ian Hotel is a reminder of the legacy of Hawai’i. Once, it was one of two grand hotels. Now, it is obscured by the surrounding modern hotels and shopping malls.

A closer look at the entrance reveals its modest architecture, which really is what Hawai’i was all about. These days, few would be impressed.

Here’s a view of one of the wings in the main lobby. It’s obviously small, narrow, and modest. Yeah, that was the old days. No thousands upon thousands of tourists. No coronavirus.

The eye appointment scheduled for today at the Waikiki Health Center was postponed until the end of April. Going to the clinic during the novel coronavirus pandemic did not seem prudent.

Addendum: The number of confirmed novel coronavirus cases is now ninety-five, just five more than yesterday. The individual who was classified as the first coronavirus death has been reclassified. Thus, no deaths have resulted from the novel coronavirus.

Lockdown

The governor “jumped the gun” a day early and announced that a “stay at home” or “lockdown” mandate would be invoked on Wednesday and encompass the entire State of Hawai’i. Essentially, the convoluted mandate was a clone of the one issued on Sunday by the mayor of Honolulu. At this point in time, there is some difficulty in determining exactly what “lockdown” means. However, only the ubiquitous “security” guards are impinging on personal freedom right now.

The “stay at home” mandate, of course, does not mesh well with claustrophobic and minimalist monks. The tomb at the “old folks home” was never converted into a true mausoleum. It has always solely been a place to sleep. Now, showers have to be taken there. Soon, purchased meals will have to be brought back and consumed there. And, more precious time will have to be wasted there, doing absolutely nothing. Only an airbed and a handful of useless possessions are in the tomb. Nothing else. There’s no inventory of food and no huge widescreen OLED tube. Heck, there’s not even one roll of asswipe paper. How is it possible to “stay at home” in that kind of environment?

Even during a pandemic, a true pariah is totally alone. There have been no calls, e-mail,  or text messages from family, long lost friends, or acquaintances. Of course, there been absolutely no attempt at outreach either. And, that is perfectly fine. Notes now suffices as the only conduit to the outside world, albeit a unidirectional one.

Coffee Time

The first day of lockdown, as observed, indicated little change in the number of people out and about. Coffee was procured in town. Then, breakfast was served at the usual bus stop bench at Ala Moana Center. Many people, locals and tourists, were milling about the mall, even though most of the stores are closed. The Nazi “security” guards were everywhere. Extended observations noted just how much those fools believe they are police officers.

iPhone XR

A long jaunt around Ala Moana Center this morning was the only exercise that has been accomplished since the gym closed for the coronavirus crisis. Truly pathetic! The real purpose of the walk was to install iOS 13.4 on the iPhone XR using the mall-wide wireless network. To say that it was a slow process would be an understatement.

A return to Waikiki was scheduled in the early afternoon in order to take a shower. Then, another ride on the bus ensued to return to Ala Moana Center. Lots of time was wasted perusing the few stores that are open. Loitering is impossible because of the Nazi “security” brigade. Eventually, dinner was procured at Subway® before returning to Waikiki. Usually, another trip is made at 6pm to Ala Moana Center for more wasting of time, and then back to Waikiki by 8pm. Tonight, the last trip was cancelled. The aforementioned is now the official itinerary, effective with the “lockdown.”

Because of the disjointed and uncoordinated efforts of all entities during the novel coronavirus crisis, much time must be spent during the day to determine if certain stores and restaurants are still open. Policies seem to change by the hour. So far, all personally patronized venues are still open for business.

Grand Princess

The fate of the Grand Princess cruise ship that docked in Honolulu and ended up quarantined at a port in Cali remained a mystery until an obscure article about its disposition surfaced on-line. There were originally about 20 people who tested positive for the novel coronavirus before the ship docked in Oakland. Subsequently, the passengers and crew were quarantined. Passengers with no symptoms were given the option to decline testing. Most of the passengers did so, just to escape quarantine. Another “three dozen” people ended up testing positive out of those who elected to be tested. Clearly, there is reason to believe that some transmission of SARS-CoV-2 did occur when those passengers disembarked in Hawai’i.

The total number of people testing positive for the novel coronavirus is now at ninety, with one related death reported. The deceased, however, also suffered from other pre-existing medical conditions. The increase in coronavirus cases is still linear, most likely due to increased testing. No evidence of mass infections yet.

Slapstick

Notes continues to provide coverage of the novel coronavirus crisis in Hawai’i because the level of stupidity, lack of coordination, absence of clear objectives, nonsensical mandates, and disinformation are mind-boggling. The sad result is that the coronavirus will continue to spread, and only the rank-and-file peons will suffer and “pay the price.”

Mayor of Honolulu

The latest news in the debacle is that the mayor of Honolulu hastily decreed a “stay at home” (or “shelter in place”) mandate yesterday, which pretty much “goes over the head” of the governor. He called it, “The Hammer.” The mandate will remain in effect until at the least April 30th. The first question is: what about Waikiki and the tourists who are here now? How is “The Hammer” going work with visitors?

The “Hammer”

Increasingly, the incompetence displayed by the empire and its regional sub-governments is becoming highly suspect. Even with fairly transparent information about the novel coronavirus from China and the continued urging by the World Heath Organization (WHO) to dramatically increase “test and trace,” there was significant procrastination. Instead, mitigation by “social distancing” became the top priority. So, COVID-19 continued to spread unabated. When testing finally increased, the number of people testing positive increased. By then, the spread was out of control.

At this point in time, there is less credibility in the sole charge of incompetence. Rather, the aforementioned actions suggest a more deliberate motive. In the weeks to come, there will be firsthand experiences with the “stay at home” regime. Predictably, the latter will be upgraded to a full lockdown. Observing the events in Washington, New York, and Cali will pretty much suffice as a “crystal ball” predictor. If those states subsequently declare martial law, then the same will happen here. Obviously, there is a playbook being followed. What are the true underlying goals, the hidden agenda, of that playbook?

The on-going slapstick comedy would be funny if it were not so tragic. For rank-and-file peons, the loss of freedom has been gradual but pervasive. Their reaction has been equally predictable. Lots of panic. Hoarding. Crippling fear, but of the type that begs for more Draconian measures to insure “safety.” False bravado. Is the denial of death lurking below the surface?

The “stay at home” mandate for Honolulu commenced at 4:30pm. Several hours prior, “security” guards at various locations, including the International Marketplace, were already enforcing the mandate. Sitting anywhere in proximity of a “security” guard results in a “free” escorting off of the premises. Otherwise, few tourists (and locals) seemed to be taking the mandate seriously, even though the number of people testing positive for the novel coronavirus is now seventy-seven. Not to worry. More slapstick is yet to come!

Beachhead

The total number of people who have tested positive for the novel coronavirus in Hawai’i is now at fifty-six (not including four military personnel who also recently tested positive). People are beginning to panic, not realizing that increased testing is the reason. Some of fools are now clamoring for a complete lockdown.

Ala Moana Center Nazis

A can opener was procured at Walmart® in town this morning. Then, breakfast was served at one of the bus stop benches at Ala Moana Center. The Nazi “security” guards were observed patrolling the entire mall and hassling people. Any sitting breaks required a walk back to the bus stop benches. Pathetic!

An early return to Waikiki and a brief stopover at the International Marketplace preceded a jaunt to Waikiki Beach. No need for “social distancing,” eh? The beach, looking West, was fairly deserted.

Looking East toward Fudgepacker Park yielded the same observation. There was some temptation to spend more time there, but the idea was quickly mummified.

The beach area is technically supposed to be closed. Some access points and seating areas were cordoned off with yellow tape. Baha! Ha! Ha! Haaa! What a farce!

Finally, a daytime view of Fudgepacker Park is in order. Looks really pleasant, eh? Just don’t venture over there at night. Sheesh!

Only one can of generic chili beans was procured at Target® this afternoon. The conversion to a cheaper and simpler diet is still way off. There just is too much hoarding.

Surreal

The governor of the State of Hawai’i has mandated that incoming residents and tourists must be quarantined for 14 days upon arrival. The surreal aspects of the mandate are that the latter doesn’t commence until March 26th and it’s ... get this ... essentially a self-quarantine. Not enforceable! There are still over 20,000 people flying into Hawai’i daily. That means about 100,000 people will arrive before the mandate takes effect. The latest “baby step” comes as the number of individuals testing positive for the novel coronavirus has reached forty-eight.

The number of infected people is going to increase because there is more testing. The real problem occurs when a hotspot is located, wherein at least a section of a neighborhood tests positive for the novel coronavirus. The total number of infected people would spike and “community spread” would be verified. Obviously, that’s when the crisis will have already spiraled out of control.

To make matters even more surreal, various Hawai’i mayors, other government officials, and medical professionals are calling for a “shelter in place” mandate from the governor. Essentially, they are calling for a lockdown of all the islands and imposing a Draconian police state. Even a mental midget would realize that “all hell will break loose” after that.

Ala Moana Center has become a small police state as of today. Nearly all of the buffoon “security” guards were on-duty. The latest Nazi dictate is that customers cannot eat any purchased food anywhere on the premises. Sitting for more than a couple of minutes is also prohibited. The “security” guards are goose-stepping around the mall and strictly enforcing the new dictates. Expect the entire mall to be on lockdown next week. Also, refer to an earlier Notes post, “‘Security’ Guard.”

The search for the elusive can of baked beans was in vain. Hoarding has completely emptied the shelves at both Walmart® and Target® stores. Even when the products are restocked, they are gone within an hour. The search will be continued nonetheless.

Great Value® Bagels

Fortunately, there wasn’t a run on the favorite breakfast staple, Great Value® cinnamon raisin bagels, at Walmart®. Only two packages were purchased. No hoarding required. Of course, with the new dictates at Ala Moana Center, where will breakfast be located? On one of the bus stop benches, just like dinner tonight!

Upon return to Waikiki much earlier than usual, the discovery was made that people were dining with their take-out food in the ample seating still available in the International Marketplace. There were tables and chairs still set up for dining in a couple of areas, too. How long will that last?

Scrapbook

A quick look at the Makai Market food court in Ala Moana Center at 11am. Any dining area in a restaurant or food court on O’ahu was mandated to remove seating accommodations by today to promote “social distancing.” A few minutes later, an Asian tourist family of four, all donning face masks, was seen standing and looking befuddled at the empty dining area. Clueless?

Ol’ Lavahead

Coffee is being procured at the fast food joint in town in the morning. Then, a quick ride to Ala Moana Center is made on the bus. A place to sit and enjoy the coffee was found around the periphery of the mall. Later, when dinner was procured, the same arrangement was followed. Somewhat pathetic, but workable.

Roach

As a result of the chaos created by poor planning for the novel coronavirus pandemic, the on-line system to file for unemployment benefits in Hawai’i has been severely overloaded. And, no wonder, the system falls under the purview of the Department of Labor & Industrial Relations. The director of the department is none other than that sleazy bastard, Roach, who was the Dean of the now-defunct Asylum (refer to the old “blog” for details). Roach has come a long way, hasn’t he?

In order to increase “social distancing” inside the expansive Satellite City Hall in Ala Moana Center, only a certain number of people are allowed inside at any time. Everyone else must queue outside, where there is no “social distancing.” Ten minutes later, the line was twice as long.

Friday night at 7:30pm on Kalakau’a Avenue, the “main drag” in Waikiki ... lights out! Some of the stores, such as Macy’s®, are shut down during the coronavirus crisis. Most of the other stores either closed early or have shut down as well.

The center court in the International Marketplace at 7:30pm ... completely empty. Most of the stores are closed or shut down for the duration. Good night from Waikiki!

Addendum: The latest count of people testing positive for the novel coronavirus is thirty-seven. The number of confirmed cases is highly dependent on voluntary submission to testing. Unfortunately, medically uninsured or underinsured people, the highest risk group, will not be tested.

Visibility

The significant decrease in tourists has made the homeless more conspicuous. They now “stick out like a sore thumb.” In Waikiki and at Ala Moana Center, there is a surprising number of homeless individuals who have suddenly become visible. Downtown, with fewer wage slaves around, resembles Skid Row.

The number of individuals who tested positive for the novel coronavirus is now at twenty-six, including ten more people (two on Mau’i and eight on O’ahu). State and local municipalities have now gone into “knee-jerk reaction” mode with respect to new policies. In other words, they are moving from the absurd to the surreal.

A quick look at the International Marketplace at 8:30pm indicates that some “knee-jerk” reaction” policies were effective in promoting maximum “social distancing.” Very few stores were open in the rest of Waikiki. Tourists were mostly wandering along Kalakau’a Avenue where street entertainers were drawing large audiences.

Addendum: This is a bad time to be homeless (or motorhomeless) on O’ahu. The City & County closed all public parks and homeless hygiene centers. Will the homeless shelters be shut down, too? The shelters obviously do not meet “social distancing” requirements.

Bizarre

The entire “landscape” of Hawai’i has become truly bizarre in the past few days. Two more O’ahu residents tested positive for the novel coronavirus, both allegedly travel-related. The total is now at sixteen individuals. The cruise ship that is currently docked in Honolulu only had crew members on board, all of whom were allowed to disembark. Two more cruise ships, full of passengers are scheduled to dock in Honolulu because other (original destination) ports refused entry.

Tourists continue to traipse around the island in search of ... what? Many of the stores have temporarily closed. Night clubs and bars have shut down. Restaurants and fast food joints are not allowing people to dine in. Events and activities have been cancelled or postponed. Many tourist attractions are also closed.

The tourists from the mainland empire don’t seem to venture very far from Waikiki. However, the Asian tourists, most of them wearing ridiculous N-95 face masks, are everywhere. With maps in hand, they seek out every shopping “nook and cranny.” These are the mental midgets of the tourist set. The World Health Organization (WHO) declares a global pandemic, and the fools vacation in Hawai’i anyway. That’s the “theatre of the absurd “ at its finest.

Traffic has sharply increased on the shitty city roadways. In transporting themselves, locals apparently want to maximize “social distancing.” Bus ridership is down ... just the tourists, the destitute, the homeless, and the ol’ lavahead. Many of the people riding the bus are illin’ as well. Coronavirus?

Aside from driving around in their 4,000-pound motorized chairs (read: automobiles), what are locals doing? Sitting at home watching the tube? Playing with their “smartphones”? Prematurely consuming their 14-day supply of emergency food rations? Chugging down alcoholic beverages? Chain-smoking cigarettes? Chokin’ da chicken? Who knows? Who cares?

Well, the closing down of the gym has left a huge void. Oddly, exercise anxiety only lasted for one day. Subsequently, there was some resignation to the prospect that the gym could be closed for months. This is an opportunity for a couple of injuries to heal is the prevailing justification. Who knows how long that ruse will last?

Update: State officials have announced that passengers and crew members of the two incoming cruise ship will not be allowed to disembark in Honolulu.

Fourteen

A few hours after the governor delivered his calming rhetoric yesterday, three more people were confirmed to have tested positive for the novel coronavirus. Two are on O’ahu. One individual is a tour guide for the Kualoa Ranch on Windward O’ahu whose infection has been determined to be “community spread.” The other individual is a healthcare worker. The individual on Mau’i is a visitor.

An additional four new confirmed coronavirus cases were announced this afternoon. The total number of confirmed cases is now at fourteen. At this point in time, the new cases appear to be converging on an exponential trajectory, so no further details are needed. Notes has given witness to the incompetence that precedes disaster. Personal viewpoints and experiences during the debacle will most likely follow.

Governor of Hawai’i

At yet another “presser,” the governor has requested that tourists postpone their plans to visit Hawai’i for 30 days. Fat chance! In addition, he has meekly “mandated” the closure of entertainment and activity venues for 15 days. Too little, too late?

All locations of the gym (i.e., 24 Hour Fitness®) closed down for an undisclosed period last night as ordered by the main office on the mainland empire. Ala Moana Center and the International Marketplace have reduced operating hours, also as of last night. Many stores have closed down for an indefinite period of time, too. Restaurants are closing, and fast food joints are not allowing customers to dine in. Panic and hoarding has worked up to a fever pitch as observed recently at Target® and Walmart® stores.

The backdrop to this “theater of the absurd” is the fresh new surge of tourists traipsing about, all of them in a crazed shopping stupor. Many of them are obviously from areas stricken by the novel coronavirus. Likely, some of them have indiscreetly imported the contagion here. Oh, the irony!

On the personal front, there has been no panic or hoarding. No extraordinary sanitary measures are being implemented. The daily itinerary would have remained same if the gym had not temporarily shut down. With no daily exercise regimen, there will be a change in diet. Yeah, canned baked beans may make a triumphant return. Showers will now have to be taken at the mausoleum in the “old folks home.”

The itinerary this morning commenced with a circuitous bus ride to Kahala Mall. A donation was made at the Goodwill drop-off station. Then, coffee time at the fast food joint ensued. The dining area will remain open for one more day. The mall itself was fairly crowded, although some stores were closed and others were in renovation. A shower curtain was purchased at Ross® for $4 with the senior citizen discount. Then, another bus ride to Ala Moana Center. Plastic shower curtain hangers were procured for less than $2 at Target®. The rest of the day will retain some similarity to the usual routine. Sadly, with the gym closed, the daily routine has been untenable.

Stupidity

Governor of Hawai’i

The governor of the State of Hawai’i emphasized that all seven cases of the novel coronavirus in Hawaii are travel-related, with those infected having come into prolonged contact with an infected person outside of the state. Another laborious “presser” that once again taxes credulity.

No one seems to understand that Hawai’i consists of a group of islands in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. The only way that a pathogen can be transmitted to the islands is by overseas travelers. The novel coronavirus is not indigenous to Hawai’i.

“We don’t — at least at this point in time — have evidence of community spread, but we know that it will occur,” the governor said. “What can we do to mitigate that? … Social distancing is our effort to flatten the curve.” As a fellow engineer, there has been much disappointment in the governor’s performance. He should, as an engineer, know better. Chinese president, Xi Jinping, has an engineering background, and he sought solutions to quickly mitigate the pandemic. The only conclusion is that the governor is a mere puppet to “Big Money.”

“Social distancing” is a ridiculous suggestion short of going into complete seclusion. All of the islands are small with only a fraction of the land being habitable. Thus, population centers are very crowded and close proximity is a given. Heck, neighboring homes in some subdivisions have about 20 feet of space between them. And, ubiquitous multigenerational homes can house more than 20 people.

So far, there has been no further information about the passengers and crew members of the Grand Princess cruise ship. How many people ended up testing positive for the novel coronavirus? Currently, there is another cruise ship docked in Honolulu, no doubt with its thousands of passengers and crew members traipsing around the island.

To be fair, the governor of Hawai’i isn’t alone. There is no coordinated effort in the entirety of empire. The only conclusion that can be drawn is that the moneychangers and powers-that-be have embraced the pandemic in order to implement a sadistic version of “herd immunity” (i.e., cull the masses by “natural” selection).

Personal planning remains on the agenda (refer to Notes post, “Preparations”). At this point in time, there is no escape. All faraway destinations appear be in various states of upheaval. And, transportation is risky. There may be only one location to relocate to in Hawai’i, and that’s Hilo on the Big Island.